Health Care Without a Democratic Majority

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

With Scott Brown’s(R) 52% to 47% (not exactly a landslide) defeat of Martha Coakley(D) in the Massachusetts special election yesterday, health care reform may be on a different path or possibly even stalled. Brown’s election will deny the Democrats the 60-seat majority they need to pass an uncontested health care bill. Martha Coakley, who was expected to win, is the current Attorney General of Massachusetts and previously was the Middlesex County District Attorney for six years. The special election was held to fill the seat of the late Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy.

Brown, a current Massachusetts state senator, reportedly will oppose the current health care legislation in the Senate making it difficult for health care in its current form to move forward, not that there has been much movement lately. While Brown opposes the current health care bill, he does support the notion that everyone should be insured, however, it should be handled on a state-by-state basis. He was a supporter of statewide health care reform that was passed in 2006 for the state of Massachusetts.

Could Brown’s election be part of the leading edge of a swing in the country’s outlook for the upcoming midterm elections? As a conservative, Brown is more likely to favor fiscal restraint, less taxation and regulation, and other government oversight of businesses. Regardless of the midterm election outcome, health care reform, if passed will, most likely, look different than does today.

The problem faced by carriers, providers, employers, employees, and those of us who have to design and administer health care plans is the sheer unknown of how to plan for 2011 and beyond. If left to states to devise their own state-by-state reforms, many employers could be faced with new mandates and an inconsistency of laws among the various states. The situation may further be complicated due to the staggered passage of reforms by some states in 2010, 2011, 2012 or later. This staggered implementation could force some multi-state carriers, providers, and employers to make changes over several plan renewal cycles.